Onchain Analysis

Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL)

Realized Cap HODL Waves is an indicator that classifies circulating Bitcoins according to age groups and shows the percentage of Bitcoins that last moved within the specified period. Realized value taken into account rather than market cap in this metric. In this indicator, HODLers from 1 day to 10 years are represented by colored bands and as a percentage. On the other hand, RHODL Ratio was created by considering Realized Cap HODL Waves data and was developed to accurately determine the bottoms and tops for Bitcoin. As bull season continues, strong hands (experienced, smart money) start to sell and weak hands (new-novice traders, dumb money) start to buy, even these weak hands have a large part of supply in total. Thereby, strong hands mostly buy from the bottom and form the bottom, while weak hands buy from the top and set the top. RHODL Ratio filters the behavior of these two important groups and shows us the market bottoms and market tops. Because when the number of very new Bitcoin holders significantly exceeds the number of old holders, the market is at the top; and vice versa, the market is at the bottom.

(1 week RHOLD band / 1-2 years RHODL band) * Total Market age (in days)

Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow

The Turkish equivalent of the word “dormancy” is “inactivity, immobility”. Here, we mean Bitcoins that don't move.
In short, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), is an important metric that takes into account Bitcoins that have not moved for a long time on the blockchain, reporting their age and number when they move.
If the CDD value is high, it means old Bitcoins that have not moved for a long time, and if it is low, it means that relatively new Bitcoins are moving. Dormancy Flow is the ratio of the current market value to the annual Dormancy value in dollars.

Dormancy Flow = Market Cap (USD) / 365 MA (Dormancy.Price “USD”)

Average Spent Output Lifespan (ASOL)

ASOL is a metric that demonstrates the average age of the coins which are spent. The calculation method of the ASOL ignores the coins that are transferred in less than one hour. ASOL helps to understand how long do investors have a tendency to hold their coins therefore it facilitates to point out that long-term investors have a tendency to take profits.

Critical Levels: 40,80,100,155 and above
The transfers which are less than 40 days shows the usual daily activity of the blockchain
The ratio above 40 means that there is an increase in the amount of the coins transferred which are moved 40 days ago at last
Upper levels of the ratio (particularly 155 days and above) are observed at the market when having high volatility and it means long-term holders abandon the ship in order to take profit or emergency exit due to expectations of lower levels can be seen.

Puell Mulitple

Puell Multiple is a calculation that demonstrates the Bitcoin miners profitability and its impact on the market. It is calculated by the USD Value of the daily supply of the Bitcoin amount divided by the 365 day average USD value of Bitcoin price.

Critical Levels: are 0-0.5,0.5-1, 1-2, 2-3 and above 3,5
Lower levels mean the profitability of the Bitcoin miners is relatively lower than the yearly average.
Higher levels mean the profitability of the Bitcoin miners is relatively higher than the yearly average.
Historical data demonstrate that below 0.5 is a huge opportunity to buy Bitcoin for holding long term.
Above 3 and higher levels also demonstrate that the current bull market top is close.

Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

SOPR indicator calculates the change between the buying price and selling price of every Bitcoin that is transferred on the blockchain and it evaluates the profitability ratio. It excludes the transaction in the exchanges, it only focuses on the transfer on the chain and it attributes the USD value of the Bitcoin at the transfer times, therefore, it does not reflect the whole market profitability but it gives a piece of useful information according to onchain movements.

The SOPR value of higher than 1 means investors transfer their coins when they are in profit. The SOPR value of lower than 1 means investors transfer their coins when they are in loss.

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)

In Onchain Analysis, there is a very important term: “Coin Day”. What is meant by this term is the accumulation of each day a coin is not spent. That is, each day on which 1 $BTC is not spent is called a "coin day".

Critical Levels: 5 million, 10 million to 20 million and more than 20 million
A CDD value of less than 5 million reflects daily traffic and is considered a baseline.
CDD values between 10 million and 20 million indicate an increase in the number of old Bitcoins moving due to the spending of long-term investors. These moves are typically associated with bullish markets, local tops or bottoms.
More than 20 million CDD values tend to emerge during periods of high volatility because larger volumes of old coins are spent, potentially realizing profit or loss.

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

The purpose here is to determine the profit-loss status of the Bitcoin network as a whole, as soon as it is examined. Values above zero indicate that the network is in profit, and values below zero indicate that holders are at a loss.

“Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” = (Market Cap – Realized Cap) / Market Cap
Critical levels: 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.65, 0.75 and above
0 or below indicates that Bitcoin holders are in loss. This region represents a huge opportunity to buy bitcoin.
Since levels of 0.65 and above mean high profitability, the increase in these values increases the probability of selling in Bitcoin.

Percent Supply in Profit (PSP)

If the current price of a coin is higher than the price it was last moved to, the coin is in profit; conversely, if a coin's current price is lower than the price it was last moved to, the coin is counted as in loss. Of course, it is not certain that this move resulted as sales, but the assumption that the second move of a specific balance is for the purpose of selling is the strongest possibility.

Percent Supply in Profit = 100. Supply in Profit / Total Supply
Critical levels: 50% and below, 95% and above
Values above 95% indicate a high rate of profitability, which means increased selling pressure.
Values below 50% indicate a low profitability ratio, in other words more than half of current Bitcoins are at a loss and this could be a good opportunity to buy.

Marketcap to Thermocap Ratio (M/T)

“Thermocap” represents the sum of block rewards and transaction fees paid to miners. When calculating this ratio, the increasing circulating supply over time is also taken into account.
“Marketcap to Thermocap” indicator is an indicator of Bitcoin's current market value compared to the total amount in USD spent by miners to mine Bitcoin and secure the network.

Marketcap / Thermocap
Critical levels: 0.00000040 and below, 0.00000100, 0.00000200, 0.00000400 and above
Below the level 0.0000040 indicates that the value of Bitcoin is well below, and this region means a great buying opportunity for Bitcoin.
The level 0.0000020 worked as an important support and resistance in the past.
The level 0.00000400 and above heralds the periods when Bitcoin's value is much higher, and price drops are normal from these levels.